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07/30/2010 - Norfolk, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There's a difficult decision ahead for Mid- Eastern Athletic Conference football, and there may not be a right or wrong answer considering both of the given options have merit.
"A win-win situation," according to Norfolk State football coach Pete Adrian.
Just as the FCS is expanding its playoff format from 16 to 20 teams this season, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference schools are weighing in on the idea of giving up the automatic bid afforded its champion, beginning in 2011, to return to a bowl game against the champion of the nation's other Historically Black Colleges and Universities league, the Southwestern Athletic Conference.
Talk of the potential Legacy Bowl has gone on for some time. Decision day is nearing.
Ironically, as FCS conferences desperate for an automatic bid like the Pioneer League and Great West circle the waters, there's good reason for the MEAC to considering giving up its bid. ESPN is believed to be offering around $1.5 million to the MEAC and SWAC for the television rights to such a bowl game.
The SWAC already foregoes sending its champion to the playoffs to have its own championship game, which draws huge crowds and revenue that stays within the conference. The FCS playoffs, meanwhile, aren't much of a revenue-generator for schools with small fan bases or those that, like the MEAC, rarely host.
"Hopefully it will be at some point in time in the fall, or before. At the latest in the fall," MEAC commissioner Dennis Thomas said today regarding the MEAC's decision during the conference's football media day.
"It's part of my responsibility to identify new revenue streams. And this is one of many revenue streams that I have brought to the table as commissioner. As you know, with the economy these days, every institution in our conference, their states are facing tremendous cutbacks and deficits. This is another proposal to vet with our membership to see whether or not we want to take advantage of a new revenue source."
North Carolina Central and Savannah State will begin participating in MEAC football next year, but Thomas said the proposal would be voted on only by the chancellors and presidents of the nine existing member schools: South Carolina State, which has been named the preseason favorite to win a third straight conference title, along with Bethune-Cookman, Delaware State, Florida A&M, Hampton, Howard, Morgan State, Norfolk State and North Carolina A&T.
A majority vote will determine the MEAC's future direction, Thomas added. If the vote was taken today, it surely would have been close, with South Carolina State, Florida A&M and to a lesser degree Delaware State believed to be the strongest proponents of keeping the status quo and not sacrificing the FCS automatic bid. What direction the other schools are leaning is up for speculation.
"You look at what's going on in college football today in general with the big guys," South Carolina State coach Buddy Pough said. "You know, Texas saved the Big 12, or whatever number they are now; Nebraska left the Big 12 to go to the Big Ten because of money. If those kind of people are making decisions based on fundraising, finances, that kind of stuff, then why in the heck would a little bitty outfit like us who needs a hundred times more money than they do not at least explore the possibilities of what could be?"
"Both ways, it's really a win-win situation, whichever way you want to go," Adrian said. "Obviously, we like being in the playoffs, but if the bowl game is something that's going to be on national TV, as it's supposed to be in front of 30, 40,000 people, that's bigger than any playoff games. It's just a question of which way we go. We don't know yet."
The MEAC and SWAC played a bowl game during the 1990s - the Heritage Bowl, with the conference champions having the option of playing in the game or going to the FCS (formerly Division I-AA) playoffs. If a conference champion chose the playoffs, the No. 2 team would be invited to play in the Heritage Bowl.
In a twist with the Legacy Bowl, the conference champions would square off, and other teams in the conferences could still have the chance to go to the playoffs, though they would have to be strong enough to earn an at-large bid. It seems unlikely for the MEAC, which hasn't won a playoff game since 1999. Florida A&M won the MEAC's only national title in 1978, but it was only a four- team playoff then.
The MEAC has won four playoff games since the field was expanded to 16 teams in 1986.
"South Carolina State (which fell at Appalachian State, 20-13, in last year's first round) showed that this conference has probably made the biggest gains in terms of quality play as a conference," said Florida A&M coach Joe Taylor, who had some playoff near-misses at Hampton before he switched schools. "Certainly the CAA, everybody is chasing them - that's the flagship, they put teams in they've won it. Buddy showed last year that we have somewhat closed that gap with some of these stronger leagues within FCS. That's important, that you compete for the best, for the ultimate prize. I think you're going to see that continue to happen."
Taylor adds that recruiting would suffer if the MEAC surrendered its playoff bid, but Adrian says it's not necessarily true. "You can say that I guess," Adrian said, "but when you look at the big guys, if you're not at a BCS school, you've not playing for the national championship and they still get the good recruits."
Some believe the Legacy Bowl would be a better experience than, say, losing a first-round playoff game. There are few games nationally in early to mid- December, when the Legacy Bowl would take place, so there would be a better chance for gaining national exposure.
"When you talk about going into a bowl game," Morgan State coach Donald Hill- Eley said, "it gives our young men an opportunity to experience that atmosphere of the bowl games, it gives them an opportunity to compete against another conference, to be able to go and spend three or four days away and be representation of your conference."
"The plusses would be a couple-day bowl game and the exposure from that," Delaware State coach Al Lavan added, "and the fact some revenue from those games would be equally distributed between the two teams involved, but also the remaining revenue would be dispersed to the remaining teams. That the plusses for it. I think there's good reason to certainly consider it."
Pough's South Carolina State squad has won 19 straight MEAC games, has a veteran team which won every conference game by at least 12 points last season, and again is led by senior quarterback Malcolm Long, the preseason conference offensive player of the year. Despite SCSU suffering losses in the first round of the playoffs at Appalachian State each of the last two seasons, including the hard-to-swallow defeat last year, Pough still prefers that experience over the MEAC's possible alternative.
"I enjoyed being in the playoffs," he said. "I also have confidence in the fact that the powers-that-be who make these kinds of decisions will make good decisions. They asked us for our input and we tell them what we like. Of course, some of us want to be in, some of us would like to be out. The one thing that I can tell you is that none of us take this lightly as far as how we decide what we're going to do."
MEAC PRESEASON POLL (Head Coaches and Sports Information Directors)
1. South Carolina State (15 first-place votes), 315 points; 2. Florida A&M (2), 268; 3. Norfolk State, 190; 4. Hampton (1), 167; 5. Morgan State, 166; 6. North Carolina A&T, 150; 7. Delaware State, 120; 8. Bethune-Cookman, 68; 9. Howard, 32
PRESEASON MEAC ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM
Offensive Player of the Year - Malcolm Long, QB, South Carolina State
Defensive Player of the Year - Julio Sanchez, LB, Hampton
First-Team Offense
QB- Malcolm Long, South Carolina State. RB- DeAngelo Branche, Norfolk State; Philip Sylvester, Florida A&M. TE- Lamont Bryant, Morgan State. WR- Willie Carter, Howard; Isaac West, Howard. OL-Johnny Culbreath, South Carolina State; Juavahr Nathan, South Carolina State; Josh Harrison, South Carolina State; Kendall Noble, Norfolk State; Sam Timothy, South Carolina State.
First-Team Defense
DL- Andre Carroll, Delaware State; Kenrick Ellis, Hampton; Josh Turner, Norfolk State; Jayson Ayers, South Carolina State. LB- Alvis Graham, Florida A&M; David Erby, South Carolina State; Julio Sanchez, Hampton. DB- Qier Hall, Florida A&M; Justin Ferrell, North Carolina A&T; Quay Long, North Carolina A&T; Darren McKahn, Morgan State.
First-Team Specialists
PK- Trevor Scott, Florida A&M. P- Nicholas Adams, Morgan State. Ret- Dwight Fluker-Berry, Norfolk State.
Second-Team Offense
QB- Anthony Glaud, Delaware State. RB- Jaashawn Jones, Delaware State; Mike Mayhew, North Carolina A&T. TE- Sherron Childress, Norfolk State. WR- Kevin Elliot, Florida A&M; Richard Christie, South Carolina State. OL- Christopher Sands, Florida A&M; Michael Ola Folorian, Hampton; Lawrence Brewer, Morgan State; Calton Ford, Norfolk State; William Falakiseni, Norfolk State.
Second-Team Defense
DL- Ryan Davis, Bethune-Cookman; Brandon Peguese, Hampton; Micah Stanfield, North Carolina A&T; Ronnell Ferguson, South Carolina State. LB- Reginald Sandilands, Bethune-Cookman; Anthony Taylor, Norfolk State; Julius Wilkerson, South Carolina State. DB- Curtis Holcomb, Florida A&M; Semaj Moody, South Carolina State; Devonne Quattlebaum, South Carolina State; Ricardo Silva, Hampton.
Second-Team Specialists
PK- Blake Erickson, South Carolina State. P- Alex Grubb, North Carolina A&T. Ret- Larrone Moore, Delaware State.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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